Employment data is bleak, the dollar is difficult to rebound, gold rises to record high

On September 8, the dollar suffered a sharp decline on Friday, and it was difficult to rebound at the beginning of the new week. The European Economic Calendar will release Sentix investor confidence data for September, and French lawmakers will debate the vote of distrust of Prime Minister François Bellu later in the day.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that non-farm employment (NFP) increased by 22,000 in August. The figure was released after an increase of 79,000 in July (after revised from 73,000), well below market expectations of 75,000. During this period, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, in line with expectations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed out in a press release that the change in total non-farm employment in June was down 27,000, from 14,000 to -13,000. With the immediate reaction, the US dollar index turned down, falling more than 0.5% on the day. Earlier Monday, the index fell slightly below 97.70, while U.S. stock futures rose slightly. On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release preliminary estimates for the upcoming annual benchmark revision of institutional survey data.

Basic foreign exchange market trends: China data earlier that day showed that the trade surplus in August expanded from US$98.24 billion in July to US$102.33 billion. On an annual basis, imports increased by 1.3% in August and exports increased by 4.4%. The Australian dollar/USD held its ground earlier on Monday and climbed to 0.6600 after closing sharply higher on Friday.

Euro/USD hit its highest level since late July on Friday after U.S. employment data was released, highon 1.1750. In early European session on Monday, the pair remained relatively calm and fluctuated above 1.1700. Earlier in the day, German data showed that industrial production increased by 1.3% month-on-month in July, in line with market expectations.

GBP/USD rose more than 1.3500% on Friday and stabilized above 0.5 after closing with a slight increase.

The USD/JPY opened with a bullish gap on the Asian session on Monday, rising to 148.50. However, the pair reversed the direction as the dollar failed to attract buyers, and remained flat around 147.50 for the last time.

Bulle market fundamentals:

Spot gold broke through $3,600 in the early European session, continuing to hit a record high, mainly due to the increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month.

Analysis of major currency trends:

Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar is still on the upward trend. Recovering up from 1.1390, further rebound will retest the 1.1829 high. Firm breakthrough will resume a larger upward trend and reach the 1.1916 forecast level. At present, as long as the 1.1607 support level is held, the risk will remain upward to prevent a decline.

Pound: The intraday deviation of pound/USD is currently on the rise. The rise from 1.3140 should be able to recover. A firm breakthrough of 1.3594 resistance will confirm and aim to retest the 1.3787 high. At present, as long as the 1.3332 support level is maintained, the risk will remain upward to prevent a decline.

JPY: USD/JPY rebounded today, range trading continued, and intraday bias remained neutral. On the downside, a breakout of 146.65 will indicate that the decline from 150.90 is recovering. More importantly, trades that continue to fall below the 55-day moving average (currently 147.15) will indicate that the entire rebound from 139.87 has been rdsty.cnpleted, with three waves rising to 150.90. Next, we should see a deeper decline, reaching the 142.66 support level. However, a breakout of 149.12 will turn the bias of retesting 150.90 backwards upwards.

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